5 Reasons Oregon State Will Beat Cal on Saturday

(AP Photo/Timothy J. Gonzalez)

I think Oregon State's match-up with Cal this Saturday at 1 P.M. at Reser Stadium is the Beavers best chance to get a PAC 12 win all season, making it one of the biggest games of the year. Here are some reasons why I think Oregon State is going to pull out a victory.

1. Oregon State is coming off a competitive performance.

The Beavers hung tough with Washington State a week and a half ago. And I think that will boost the Beavers confidence going forward. Thanks to aggressive play calling and better efforts on defense, the Beavers were right in the game at halftime, only trailing 24-28. They kept that competitiveness up through the 3rd quarter until the wheels fell off in the 4th. Ultimately, Oregon State knows that Washington State is a far better football team that Cal at this point, so they should know that if they play like they did against the Cougars and limit their mistakes in the 2nd half, they have a good chance to get a win.

2. Artavis Pierce and Jake Luton are 100% healthy

At this point, we don't know if Jake Luton or Conor Blount will be starting on Saturday. Personally, I think Conor has earned the right to start this game but even if he does, it is nice to know that if he is struggling, the Beavers have a capable back up that can come in and help the offense move the ball. But the biggest thing here is that Artavis Pierce should be back to being the monster he was the first couple of weeks. Pierce didn't do much against Washington State but the fact that he wasn't 100% healthy and that he hadn't played in a game in four weeks heavily contributed to that. Having Pierce and Jermar Jefferson healthy should help this offense move the ball against a decent Cal defense.

3. Oregon State is coming off a bye week

This is big because the Beavers are a little banged up, so this helped get some players some needed rest going into the second half of the season. But also, it allowed the coaches to get extra game planning in and to watch Cal, at home, get utterly dominated by UCLA who at that point, hadn't won a game and was considered the worst or second worst team in the conference. This should give the players and coaches more confidence going into the game this week.

4. Cal can't hold onto the ball the last three weeks

Cal has an astonishing 14 turnovers in their last three games. Oregon State's defense have only forced five turnovers this year (2 interceptions, 3 fumbles), but have dropped countless interceptions at this point of the season. If the Beavers can force Cal to continue their turnover habits, the chances of winning for the Beavers greatly increase.

5. Cal's offense isn't very good

Cal's offense hasn't been very effective this year. Granted, they haven't played a defense as bad as Oregon State's this year, but even so they are still struggling. Through their first six games, Cal is averaging just 23 points a game and just 16 points a game in their last three. They're averaging 393 yards a game (178 rushing, 214 passing) which ranks 9th in the PAC 12. Oregon State has had trouble stopping the run and Cal has been good a running the football but if the Beavers can force them into some third and longs, they have a good chance at getting some defensive stops.

Final Prediction:

The Beavers are going to play as hard as they have all season on Saturday, I have no doubt about that. Jonathan Smith knows how big and winnable this game is and will make sure the Beavers go out there and compete at home. Because of that, my prediction is the Beavers pull out their first PAC 12 win of the Jonathan Smith era and their first PAC 12 win in nearly two years, 31-28.